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Brain drain vastly underestimated
OTTAWA – Large numbers of Canadian professionals and managers are obtaining »temporary« work visas in the U.S., then staying there for long periods, indicating that the brain drain may be far bigger than previously thought, according to a report published jointly by the federal Industry and Human Resources departments.
The newly released study, called »International Migration of Skilled Workers: Facts and Figures,« says that »temporary emigration, rather than permanent emigration, may now be the vehicle of choice into the U.S.« for skilled Canadians.
»This is serious because it shows how we are losing the cream of the crop to the U.S. and in increasingly large numbers,« says one policy-maker involved in commissioning the report. Most of the
emigrants have taken advantage of looser U.S. rules under the North American Free Trade Agreement.
In 1997, about 5,000 Canadian professionals and managers left Canada for the U.S. armed with permanent work visas, government records show. But it appears that in addition, more than three times that number, up to 16,450, also went south for work and higher salaries in 1997, using temporary visas that are readily renewable.
The report bases its estimates on what it terms "preliminary and unofficial data from the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization
Service."
It notes that, as of last year, only 22% of 1995 university
graduates who moved to the U.S. for work-related reasons had
returned. A further 34% said they intended to return at some point,
with 44% either planning to stay in the U.S. or uncertain whether
they will come back to Canada.
Normally, studies on cross-border migration of skilled workers
look at permanent immigration flows. But the study points out that
fully 90% of 1995 university graduates moving to the U.S. used a
temporary visa, in most cases a North American Free Trade
Agreement visa.
These temporary NAFTA visas are considerably easier to obtain
than permanent visas. They are available to any Canadian
professional with the relevant post-secondary education and
experience and a U.S. job offer.
"Combining evidence from tax records and temporary visas with
permanent immigration data clearly show a significant rise in highly
skilled workers leaving Canada," the report says. It adds that
when long-term »temporary« leavers are added to the permanent
emigrants, the number of skilled workers leaving Canada appears
to have doubled during the '90s.
And, the report emphasizes, these emigrants are among Canada's
most talented workers.
About 4,600 Canadians who graduated from university and
college in 1995 were working in the U.S. two years later --
approximately 1.5% of the total. Nearly half ranked themselves in
the top 10% of their class, according to the National Graduate
Survey, with 81% in the top 25% of their class.
The report notes that PhD students are eight times more likely to
wind up in the U.S. for work than other graduates.
The study notes that lower U.S. taxes definitely figure in the
exodus, particularly the more generous treatment of stock options
and capital gains, given the tendency for compensation in high-tech
industries to be strongly tied to the employer's stock market
performance.
Still, the main allure appears to be far higher salaries and better job
opportunities in management and fast growing high-tech or
science-based sectors.
Based on a 85¢ Canadian dollar, the study found Canadian
workers in the bio-pharmaceutical industry could earn on average
75% more in the U.S., while telecom industry workers could earn
71% more, aerospace workers 55% more, information technology
workers 41% more and auto parts workers 40% more. With
today's actual 67¢ dollar, the wage differential would be even
larger.
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